Life is probabilities
Didn’t like statistics in school?
Too bad, because everything in life is about probabilities.
YOUR life is all about probabilities.
The problem is that we don’t know the exact probabilities of things happening to us because of so many ‘known unknowns’ and even ‘unknown unknowns’.
If I get in my car to drive somewhere, what is the chance of getting in an accident?
For me, probably very low on a usual day. But what if there is more traffic than usual, what if there is mud or ice on the road, what if I take a different route, what if I am not completely sober, what if…?
But even more important, what are the consequences of me getting in an accident if that were to happen?
Maybe fatal. Maybe losing an hour of my time. Maybe being late for an hour would cause me to accidentally see a friend who I haven’t seen in years. Or meet my soulmate. Or maybe that small accident saved me from being in a fatal one 10 minutes later.
You never know.
Anything can happen, that’s called life and you can’t influence everything no matter how hard you try.
The good news?
You don’t have to do any statistical calculations – you just need to know 1 thing:
How to increase probabilities of the things you want, and decrease probabilities of the things you don’t.
In other words: How to increase the probability of achieving what you want in life.
Achieving what you want can be related to income, health, marriage, kids, fame, philanthropy, whatever.
Examples:
-- Wanna look & feel better? → start lifting weights & eating healthier
-- Wanna quit your job & retire? → work on side projects nights & weekends
-- Wanna have more fun on a night out? → drink tequila instead of soda
-- Wanna meet someone special? → leave your house more often
-- Wanna have fun and amazing experiences? → go travel somewhere
-- Wanna be really bored? → watch netflix & scroll your phone all day long
It depends what your priorities are, and the big O-word – what you “optimize” for.
You can’t simultaneously work 50 hours per week, raise kids, live a healthy life and be a party freak. Even 2 of the 4 would be hard to do.
If you optimize for health and longevity, you would eat healthy, do both strength training and aerobic training, take long walks, give up alcohol, go to sleep and rise early, and everything else that goes with it.
However, there are no guarantees in life, nothing has a 100% probability.
That’s why it’s all about increasing and decreasing probabilities.
For example, no matter how healthy you live, you are still going to die someday (at least your physical body).
You may even die in an accident or from an incurable disease – no guarantees.
Likewise, you can work hard your whole life and still die in poverty. You can never leave your house and still marry your soulmate. You can travel the world and be miserable all the time. You can go out sober, drink sparkling water and have the best party time of your life.
Still, you should always be working on improving your probabilities, even though nothing is guaranteed.
Another great example for this is investing.
Many people say “why would I save and invest money? I could die next year, better to spend it while I can still enjoy it!”
The real shocker for me: I hear this from people in their 20s and 30s, even if only half-jokingly, I know they mean it.
Conclusion: Work on increasing probabilities for things you want in life, and decreasing for things you don’t want. You do that by making decisions and taking actions who believe are the right ones at the moment.
Finally, I have some guesswork for you to do…
Take a second to think about the following question: What is the most accurate predictor of success in people's lives?
(Success mostly being determined financially, which then helps elevate other areas of your life.)
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Care to venture a guess?
Welllll it’s not where you went to college.
Nor how intelligent you are (sucks for me!).
Nor how tall or good-looking you are.
Nor how old you were when you started talking.
You can also forget about talents, athleticism or anything else.
While all of these play a role, the answer is really sick:
The best predictor of success in life is the ZIP code you were born in!
But it makes sense when you think about it.
Imagine a difference between being born in the US and being born in some tribe deep in the Amazon without any ties to modern civilization.
Then, even if you’re born in the US, there is a huge difference between rural North Dakota and Palo Alto, California. Yes, that’s your ZIP code.
The ZIP code makes a huge difference. People you are around every day, the culture, the values, resources, expectations, both from your parents and your peers.
Probability of financial success:
someone born in Palo Alto > someone born in North Dakota > someone born in the Amazon
Although miracles CAN happen.
Like Chamath Palihapitiya, who was born in a war-torn Sri Lanka, seeking safety in refugee camps. Then moving to Canada, later to the United States, working for Facebook and becoming a billionaire.
But those stories are rare. Care to guess why?
Probabilities, exactly!
Un saludo,
Filip Stanojevic – Literally trying to improve my own probabilities